The Possibilities for Baccarat Card Counting

card counting The game of Baccarat is somewhat similar to blackjack, and since blackjack has made the topic of card counting very popular, a lot of people are interested to know if you can count cards to get an advantage over the house in Baccarat as well. The answer is a bit more complicated than the answer for blackjack, but the end result is a system of betting that can often be easier to work with.

Baccarat Card Counting: The Basics

The best two betting options in Baccarat are the banker bet and the player bet, and most players know that much. The banker bet has a house advantage of about 1.06 percent while the player bet has an advantage of about 1.24 percent. While the wager on the banker hand is typically best, the basic idea behind card counting in this game is to figure out when the player bet is more favorable based on the cards that have been dealt out of the shoe. There’s only a difference of 0.18 percent between these two bets, so in theory, it shouldn’t be too hard for situations to come up where the player bet is correct.

How This System Works

This system requires that your game is being dealt with a six-deck or eight-deck shoe of cards. With a new shoe, you’re going to start over with a count of zero. For every one (ace), two or three that’s dealt, you’re going to add 1 to the count. When a four is dealt, you’re going to add 2 to the count. Along similar lines, a five, seven or eight are worth -1 while a six is worth -2. All of the nines, tens, jacks, queens and kings do not affect the count at all. You keep a running number without worrying about a true count, and you include all of the cards shown that are taken from the shoe for this count.

The way this count works is that the higher the count becomes, the better the player bet becomes. When the count is higher than 16, then the player bet is more favorable than the banker bet. If the count drops down below 16 again, then you should pull back to the banker bet. As is the case with typical Baccarat play, you will not be looking to play the tie bet or any side bets under any circumstances.

Why Does This Baccarat Counting System Work?

The house advantage of either of the main bets (banker and player) depends on the cards that are left in the deck. When cards worth 1-4 leave the deck, it increases the house advantage for the banker bet while decreasing it for the player bet. Along similar lines, the cards worth 5-8 decrease the house edge for the banker bet and boost it for the player bet. When enough of one type of card has left the deck, then it can change which of the two bets is better than the other.

Can You Win With This Counting System?

Generally speaking, you’re going to need a count in the range of +235 for the player bet to be profitable on its own or a count in the range of -200 for the banker bet to be outright profitable. Neither of these scenarios are likely to happen on their own. With that having been said, there are other ways to decrease the house advantage on Baccarat through promotions and things like that. Card counting in Baccarat using the system we have described here will help you to lower the house edge as much as possible to absolutely maximize your chances of winning.